Overview of Market
Overview
Global equity markets rebounded to pre–Middle East conflict levels after a sharp decline in March, despite a significant risein crude oil prices. Domestic equities also staged a recovery; however, market sentiment remained fragile, weighed down by crude oil price volatility and subdued investor confidence. Indian markets have shown stronger upside capture, with Nifty50, Nifty midcap 100 and Nifty SmallCap 250 delivering 7.5%,13.6% and 17.1%, respectively. Domestically, macroeconomic stress indicators showed early signs of stabilization following the March shock, with crude oil price volatility moderating and bond yields stabilizing around the 7% level. On the policy front, major central banks including the US Federal Reserve, the ECB, the BOE, and the RBI kept policy rates unchanged, opting to adopt a wait-and-watch approach to assess the impact of ongoing geopolitical developments while prioritizing financial stability. Global equity markets posted strong gains during the month. The Bloomberg World Large & Mid cap Price Return Index rose by 10% supported by sharp advances across major equity benchmarks, including the CSI 300 (+9.1%), S&P 500 (+10.4%), Nikkei 225 (+17.9%), and KOSPI (+34.0%). MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI World indices also recorded robust gains of 14.5% and 9.5%, respectively. (All returns in USD)
Fixed-Income and Currency Markets
Sovereign bond yields across most economies remained rangebound, amid concerns over rising inflation and weakening fiscal positions. In India as well, the 10-year government bondyield mirrored movements in the currency and crude oil prices, both of which continue to exert pressure on the fiscal outlook. The US Dollar Index (DXY) ended the month down ~2%,mirroring developments around a ceasefire and opening of the Straits of Hormuz. The rupee continued to remain underpressure, depreciating ~0.1% during the month on continued external shock. Indian Rupee (INR) ended April at 94.92/USD. The INR has declined ~5.5% on a YTD basis.
Flows & sectoral performance
DIIs remained net buyers (~₹51,064 Cr), while FIIs sold off(~₹,70,135 Cr). Every sector closed positive; however, the rallyreflects a liquidity-led, rotation-driven phase rather than abroad-based, earnings-backed sectoral upcycle. Sectors outperforming benchmark: Nifty Realty (+14.4%), NiftyEnergy (+9.5%), Nifty Media (+7.9%) Sectors underperforming benchmark: Nifty IT (-6.5%), NiftyPharma (-2.8%).
